ECB wage tracker at 2.7% in H1 2027, pointing to a modest uptick in negotiated wage growth

The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage pressures with smoothed one-off payments of 2.2% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 46.9% of employees in participating countries). The headline wage tracker indicator stands at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 (based on a coverage of 32.5%) and 2.8% in the second quarter of 2027 (based on a coverage of 25.1%). The lower wage tracker in the first half of 2026 reflects the downward mechanical impact of one-off payments that were initially paid in the second half of 2024 and not repeated in the following year. These effects dissipate fully in the second half of 2026.

Compared with the July 2026 data release, the ECB wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments was revised downwards slightly for 2026. The headline wage tracker was broadly unchanged for the fourth quarter of 2026 and for the first quarter of 2027, despite a significant increase in employee coverage.

The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments moderated from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments stands at 2.6% on average in 2026, indicating a limited role for one-off payments in recent collective bargaining agreements. At the quarterly frequency, all indicators are at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 and 2.8% in the second quarter of 2027.