ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – August 2026

In August the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months was 3.5%, the same as in July. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased to 3.0% from 2.9% in July, while median expectations for inflation three years ahead increased to 2.9% from 2.7% in July and median expectations for inflation five years ahead increased to 2.5% from 2.4% in July. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased, but remained higher than the level prevailing before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. Respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in the top quintile. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).

Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months were unchanged at 1.0%. As in previous months, expectations were on average higher in the bottom income quintile (1.7%) than in the top quintile (0.7%). Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months increased in August to 5.2% from 5.1% in July, while expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 3.6%.