Philip R. Lane: Interview with Le Temps

Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Sébastien Ruche on 15 September 2026

How does the ECB assess the ongoing energy crisis?

Essentially, we experienced an initial wave of energy price increases in March and April this year, and then some optimism after the United States and Iran signed the Memorandum of Understanding on 17 June to bring the conflict to an end.

Indeed. We are now seeing a second wave of price increases, not just for oil but also for gas. That’s why we indicated on 10 September that we expect the energy shock to last longer than we had anticipated in March. At the time, markets expected the peak of the energy shock to come around June, followed by a recovery in the second half of the year. Although there was a temporary recovery over the summer, geopolitical risks now appear to be elevated again. As a result, we think that because of this second wave of rising energy prices, inflation is likely to be higher for longer, before falling back towards our target from mid-2027 onwards.

Do you see any impact on the prices of other goods, such as electricity, or on services prices?

So far, between February and now, no. So that’s the good news. However, because we are now facing a second wave of energy price increases, we think there will be upward pressure on food, energy more broadly – including electricity – and goods in general, while pressure on services remains contained.

The economy has been quite resilient so far. Do you think that will continue?