Summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting (2026-19)

Summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting

1.    Amid geopolitical developments and the resulting uncertainties, energy prices remain elevated and exhibit notable volatility. The duration and extent of uncertainties regarding energy supply, supply chains, and transport costs will continue to be decisive for the future trajectory of energy prices.

2.    Due to geopolitical developments, growth forecasts for 2026 have been revised downward in many economies, particularly those in the Middle East and Africa. On the other hand, growth rates are expected to recover in 2027, supported by favourable base effects. Accordingly, the weak and fragile outlook is expected to continue globally, and the global growth index, which is weighted by the export shares of Türkiye’s foreign trade partners, has been revised somewhat downward for 2026 and upward for 2027 compared to the previous MPC period and is projected to increase annually by 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively.

3.    Rising commodity prices have heightened risks to global inflation. While central banks remain vigilant about these risks, they also take into account the unfavorable effects of these developments on growth and employment. The priced-in policy rate paths of major central banks have shifted significantly upward compared to the previous MPC period. The persistence of the supply shock caused by geopolitical developments and the degree to which it will disrupt inflation expectations are key considerations for the course of global monetary policy. Recently, as increased uncertainty and fluctuations in risk appetite have led to portfolio outflows from emerging stock markets, downside risks to portfolio flows remain elevated.