Homicides fall as organised crime grows more profitable – and networked

Homicide rates are falling across much of the world, but organised crime is on the rise in many regions as criminal networks diversify into trafficking, migrant smuggling, and the exploitation of natural resources, a new UN report launched on Wednesday revealed. 

The study, Crime and Justice in a Changing World, by the UN Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), was presented on Wednesday at the 15th UN Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice in Abu Dhabi. 

Drawing on nine regional studies, it finds that homicides fell from 5.9 per 100,000 people in 2015 to 5.2 in 2023 and are projected to decrease by 25 per cent between 2015 and 2030 under current trends.

However, rates remain high in Latin America and the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa – which together account for roughly two thirds of all homicide victims worldwide – and are frequently driven by organised crime, gangs and transnational criminal groups. 

The report says the two trends are not contradictory but reflect a shift in where criminal profit is generated: away from localised predation and towards transnational markets, digital victimisation and the exploitation of licit trade and supply chains.

Criminal networks are increasingly intertwined with legitimate economies, the report finds. 

In Latin America, cartels that began in drug trafficking have expanded into agriculture, mining, fishing and wildlife, while Europol has assessed that nearly one fifth of criminal networks in Europe operate across multiple criminal markets. 

In parts of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, criminal groups operating from special economic zones traffic thousands of people and run cyberfraud schemes, including romance-investment fraud and crypto scams. 

In Cambodia, estimates of illicit proceeds from cybercrime and illegal gambling range from $12.5 billion to $19 billion a year – as much as 60 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).