Quarterly Bulletin 2026:3 – Steady growth amid heightened inflation and ongoing external uncertainty

Modified domestic demand (MDD) growth is being revised up modestly in 2026 to 3.8 per cent and to 3.4 per cent in 2027, supported by resilient consumer spending and multinational investment Headline inflation is projected to average 3.4 per cent in 2026, moderating to 3.1 per cent in 2027 and 2.0 per cent in 2028 Significant increase in housing output expected out to 2028, but increasing delivery times require timely implementation of reforms. The Central Bank has today (16 September 2026) published its third Quarterly Bulletin of 2026. At the launch of the Quarterly Bulletin, Robert Kelly, Director of Economics and Statistics said: “Trade tensions remain high and firms are adjusting to a fragmented and less favourable trading environment. Across Europe, the summer period saw record temperatures and prolonged drought.  This has placed strain on food production and transportation, adding a further impetus to already high inflation. Closer to home, the labour market is experiencing structural shifts, including adoption of new technologies, continued ageing of the population and the increasingly important role of net inward migration – already accounting for around two-thirds ...