SPC Oct 3, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies across the northern CONUS will continue to track quickly eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Showers and low-topped thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas will spread into MN this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 40s), but a pocket of weak instability should support occasional lightning flashes with this activity. Convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen this afternoon, but the overall risk for severe winds is expected to remain low owing to the minimal instability forecast. A nearly stationary surface front extending from south/coastal TX into the Southeast and Carolinas will once again serve as a focus for thunderstorms this afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass occurs acro...