SPC Oct 3, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder to account for recent trends. Please see previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies across the northern CONUS will continue to track quickly eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Showers and low-topped thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas will spread into MN this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 40s), but a pocket of weak instability should support occasional lightning flashes with this activity. Convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen this afternoon, but the overall risk for severe winds is expected to remain low owing to the minimal instability forecast. A ne...