SPC Oct 3, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper low over southern Canada is forecast to intensify as it traverses the northern and eastern Great Lakes. A leading shortwave trough will quickly move from the eastern Lakes into the Northeast, with an attendant portion of the surface cold front moving quickly offshore. The remainder of the front will gradually move southward with cooler temperatures and high pressure developing in its wake over the central US. Ahead of the front from east TX, to the Gulf Coast States and far eastern Atlantic shores, a seasonably warm and very moist air mass will support modest diurnal destabilization with MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected through the day ahead of the front and along typical sea-breeze boundaries. However, very weak mid-level lapse rates and little deep-layer shear suggests storm organization will be minimal. While a sporadic wet microburst is possible with the stronger forecast st...