New AI Tool Forecasts Drought 90 Days Ahead Nationwide

New AI Tool Forecasts Drought 90 Days Ahead Nationwide

System gives water managers, farmers and communities early warning of streamflow drought conditions

RESTON, Va. — The U.S. Geological Survey released a new machine learning tool that forecasts droughts up to 90 days ahead nationwide. The tool may provide communities extra time to prepare for water shortages that could impact agriculture, municipal supplies, recreation and ecosystems. 

The tool forecasts streamflow drought, which is when rivers and streams drop below normal levels for extended periods, which may directly impact water availability even when rainfall returns to normal.

The USGS River DroughtCast uses machine learning models trained on data from thousands of USGS streamgages, some with more than 100 years of continuous records, to forecast when rivers and streams will drop to abnormally low levels.

“The USGS is putting more than a century of streamflow data to work in a completely new way, using machine learning to predict streamflow drought weeks in advance,” said John Hammond, USGS project manager for the drought forecasting system. 

Streamflow drought occurs when rivers and streams stay below normal levels for extended periods, distinct from the more familiar meteorological droughts characterized by lack of rainfall. While lack of rain typically comes first, factors like soil moisture, snowpack, and groundwater all influence how dry conditions translate into reduced river flows. This makes streamflow drought particularly difficult to predict but critically important for water resource planning.