Justice Sector projections released

The Ministry of Justice - Te Tahū o te Ture, in collaboration with the Department of Corrections – Ara Poutama Aotearoa, New Zealand Police, Crown Law and the Serious Fraud Office has released its latest projections for New Zealand’s prison population over the next 10 years.

The projections, evaluate long-term trends to estimate what may occur in the criminal justice system, helping to inform investment, planning and policy decisions.

This year’s report projects the prison population will increase by 36 percent from 10,488 in February 2025 to 14,230 in June 2035.

The projected increase in total prison population is driven by an increase in both the remand and sentenced populations. The sentenced population is projected to increase rapidly until June 2028 then gradually increase to 7,705 in June 2035. Unlike to the sentenced population, the number of those on remand is projected to increase consistently from 4,693 in February 2025 to 6,525 in June 2035.

Ministry of Justice Sector Insights General Manager Rebecca Parish says the sentenced population is projected to grow as a result of new policy settings, such as the Sentencing Reform Act and the reinstatement of the Three Strikes law.

The impacts of these new policy settings were signalled last year, but only included this year as law was finalised and enacted.

“The new policy settings are expected to see more offenders receive prison sentences and for those sentences to be longer,” Ms Parish says.

The increase in the remand population is expected to be driven by a higher number of serious offenders coming before the courts and the higher rates of remand that will result.

Those remanded have been spending longer in remand due to their case taking longer to go through the courts.