SPC Oct 4, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few rotating thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Gulf Coast today, otherwise severe thunderstorms are not expected. ... Synopsis ... A midlevel shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes this morning will help carve out/reinforce a larger-scale trough across the eastern US. At the same time, a midlevel anticyclone will remain in place across the western US. This pattern will favor northwesterly flow across much of the eastern half of the country, in turn supporting reinforcing shots of cooler air. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis should support the development of a cyclone across the far northern Gulf Coast or just inland across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This weak low will slowly move east during the day. ... Portions of the Florida Panhandle and the Adjacent Coastal Waters ... A stalled surface front will be draped across the Southeast today, with a very moist airmass in place along...