SPC Oct 4, 2026 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will continue to deepen as it moves eastward across Quebec on Monday, with the speed max at the base of the trough sweeping across the Northeast. Behind this trough, northwest flow will persist from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, with a weak midlevel trough moving across the Great Basin. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will provide stable conditions to much of the central and eastern States, with the more substantial low-level moisture and instability relegated to the Gulf Coast area. Scattered thunderstorms will thus be possible along the northern Gulf Coast, and across much of Florida, though severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, sporadic lightning flashes may occur over parts of southern CO, and into parts of NV where cool air aloft will steepen lapse rates. Instability will be weak, as will low-level wind fields. A few strong gusts cannot be ruled out due to the deeply mixed b...