SPC Oct 4, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America. For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves. Read more