SPC Oct 4, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal Florida Panhandle. ...Florida Panhandle... A stalled/slow-southeastward-moving surface front will reside across the Southeast and Deep South today, with a very moist airmass persisting along and to its south, featuring Precipitable Water values in excess of 2 inches. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are common early today south of the front, including across the northern half of the Gulf. There are some guidance indications, most notably recent NAM runs, that weak offshore surface low development may occur today, with a related developing enhancement to the low-level flow/SRH. Should this trend materialize, showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to exhibit brief, transient low-level circulations, mainly near the coast, with a related waterspout/brief tornado potential. ..Guyer/Dean.. 10/04/2026 Read more