Finnish Government publishes results of foresight project on Russia’s futures: Finland and Europe must prepare for multiple possible futures for Russia

The Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry for Foreign Affairs have published the results of the joint Russia’s Futures foresight project. A collaboration involving a wide range of experts, the project set out to strengthen Finland’s ability to anticipate possible developments in Russia and assess their implications for Finland, Europe and the international system through to 2045.

The project results are presented in two publications: Russia’s Futures and a separate appendix that describes the key drivers of change affecting Russia’s development. Anyone interested can use and further develop the results.

The project prepared four alternative scenarios for Russia’s development by 2045: Renewing Russia, Fading Russia, Imperialist Russia and Chaotic Russia. Besides the scenarios, the ministries also publish related impact assessments and a set of measures considered important regardless of which scenario, or combination of scenarios, emerges.

Since Russia launched its war of aggression against Ukraine, the operating environment has become significantly more uncertain. The project identified 22 drivers of change affecting Russia’s development and 14 key uncertainties and used them as the basis for the scenarios.

The appendix to Russia’s Futures is a collection of the key drivers of change affecting Russia’s development, covering the perspectives of foreign policy, society, the economy, technology, the environment and military developments. Key areas of analysis include the persistence of great-power thinking, demographic challenges, economic and technological dependencies, the effects of climate change and the growing militarisation of security policy. Russia’s trajectory is not examined in isolation, but as part of a wider international context shaped by changes in the global operating environment and the actions of other states and actors.

Four alternative scenarios for Russia in 2045