Philip R. Lane: Interview with Ansa

Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Domenico Conti on 1 October 2026

The first question is about the scenarios that the ECB has run since the start of the Middle East war. Where we are right now in relation to these scenarios?

We have found it useful to put out these scenarios. But let me emphasise, they make different assumptions about the price of oil and the price of gas. But they also make different assumptions, for example, about the strength of the second round effects, how quickly the energy prices will transmit to the wider inflation rate and to the economy.

This is something we don’t learn about every day. What is true is that energy prices are higher than we expected in our baseline. But I don't want to convert that into any one scenario. Because the scenarios are a collection of different assumptions. And on the second round effects, we have not seen, so far, very strong second round effects. We continue to look at them. That's why, even though I am a promoter of the scenarios, it is too simplistic to say we're in the adverse scenario or the baseline scenario. They are helpful illustrations. But we try to do a comprehensive analysis. And to repeat, clearly, energy prices are high but the strength of the pass-through to the rest of the economy remains uncertain.

We are seeing a mixed picture regarding growth. We have had some very good data in the second quarter. Also, the ECB has made it clear that the third quarter could be moderately good. But we have risks, of course, geopolitical risk, the energy shock. Now we have this marked increase in long-term yields propagating from the United States, with lots of European countries that are facing a pretty stark increase in yields. Would you single out the biggest risk that you are monitoring right now?