SPC MD 2346

MD 2346 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA Mesoscale Discussion 2346 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 Areas affected...west-central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061904Z - 062100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The risk for a brief tornado/waterspout will increase in the short term across the west-central Florida coast. DISCUSSION...A few transient supercells have been noted over the eastern Gulf offshore from the west-central FL coast. Recently, a more persistent and stronger rotation signature has been noted with a small supercell west of Tampa Bay. This cell is near the differential heating zone/cold front where low-level instability in stronger and low-level SRH is maximized near and north of the boundary. This cell, and others developing offshore may shift closer to shore over the next 1-2 hours. As this occurs, a risk for a brief tornado/waterspout moving onshore will be possible. The risk will rapidly decrease inland from the immediate coast. Given the generally modest environmental parameter space and very small and focused risk area...