Meeting of 9-10 September 2026

Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Berlin on Wednesday and Thursday, 9-10 September 2026

1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options

Ms Schnabel started her presentation with the observation that, since the Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting on 22-23 July 2026, euro area financial markets had continued to be driven by energy price developments, with market attention turning to the global rise in long-term yields amid a resilient euro area macroeconomy.

Persistently high energy prices, reinforced by concerns about higher food price inflation, had pushed market expectations regarding the outlook for inflation and policy rates higher. Energy prices and futures curves had moved up owing to renewed US-Iran hostilities. In Europe, the focus had shifted from oil to refined products and gas. The price and futures curve of gas oil – a refined, diesel-type product – had moved up significantly, reflecting concerns about limited refining capacity. Similarly, European gas prices had risen to the highest level recorded since early 2023, and low European gas storage levels could put further upward pressure on gas prices. The recent heatwave in Europe and what could likely be a strong “El Niño” event had also added to concerns about upward pressure on prices, with international food prices rising significantly over recent months.