SPC MD 2347

MD 2347 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA Mesoscale Discussion 2347 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0835 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota into Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090135Z - 090300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An elevated supercell or two may produce isolated large hail in the next few hours. The marginal magnitude of the hail threat will likely preclude a watch. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has been expanding in a northwest-southeast band from southeast SD into IA. The convection appears to be rooted into the 850-700 mb layer in a zone of low-level warm advection on the northeast edge of an elevated mixed layer. Isentropic upglide will increase through early tonight on the nose of a modestly strengthening low-level jet, which will support a continued increase in storm coverage through at least 04z. Upstream low-level moisture is sufficient for MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg and cloud-layer vertical shear is strong enough to support an elevated supercell or two the next few hours from southeast SD into IA. Relatively steep midlevel ...