SPC MD 2354

MD 2354 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA Mesoscale Discussion 2354 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeast Georgia into the northern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101746Z - 101915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible with wet downbursts within the stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat should be isolated, with a WW issuance not expected. DISCUSSION...A somewhat organized line of multicells and short linear segments have developed with the primary confluence band pendant from Isaias' remnants, which is progressing eastward toward a destabilizing airmass. Adequate insolation is supporting surface temperatures reaching 90 F amid upper 70s F dewpoints, contributing to 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Despite the magnitude of buoyancy present, mid-level lapse rates are poor (e.g. around 5.5 C/km per 12Z regional observed soundings), with instability confined to tall but thin profiles. Furthermore, vertical wind shear is modest, comprised of 25-35 k...