SPC MD 2357

MD 2357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA Mesoscale Discussion 2357 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Areas affected...Southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley into South-Central Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102112Z - 102315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to lift northward into southern CA and AZ through late this afternoon. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage continues to increase across northern Baja CA this afternoon with the approach of TS Rachel. Low to mid-level moisture advection has slowly been increasing northward throughout the day, and will persist through this evening, yielding ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. In addition, kinematic fields are becoming more favorable for some thunderstorm organization across this region. The latest mesoscale analysis suggests effective bulk shear is beginning to approach 45-50 kt, along with the YUX vad profile. DCAPE ~1100 J/kg and storm cell mergers could supp...