SPC MD 2358

MD 2358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH Mesoscale Discussion 2358 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Idaho...western Wyoming...and northern Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102205Z - 110000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may bring an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. DISCUSSION...Recent observations indicate an uptick in lightning activity with ongoing convection coincident with the development of weak buoyancy (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) across southeastern Idaho and northern Utah over the past hour. While available buoyancy is expected to remain limited, strong southwesterly flow aloft (30-40 kts at ~3 km AGL per the MTX/SFX VWPs) downstream of an mid/upper trough centered over the Pacific Northwest is contributing to 30-45+ kts of effective shear across the region. This will allow for convective organization into one or more linear clusters and perhaps marginal supercell structures. With steep low- and mid-le...