SPC MD 2360

MD 2360 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA Mesoscale Discussion 2360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0832 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Areas affected...far northeast South Carolina into central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111332Z - 111530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few tornadoes may occur with some of the stronger thunderstorms within a broader band of precipitation. Convective trends are being monitored in the short term for the need of a Tornado Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms along a primary confluence band from the extra-tropical remnants of Isaias continues to advance eastward, with an uptick in storm intensity noted (via MRMS mosaic radar imagery and NLDN lightning data). This band of storms is approaching an axis of instability, characterized by over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven by mid 70 F surface dewpoints (shown via surface observations). Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, as indicated by regional 12Z observed soundings, reaching 6 C/km in spots. Therefore, CAPE profiles will be tall and thin. Though...