SPC MD 2364

MD 2364 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA Mesoscale Discussion 2364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Areas affected...Portions of Central Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111801Z - 112030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage across central AZ is expected through this afternoon. A few localized strong to severe wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite and radar trends indicate an increase in deeper moist convection beginning to develop across portions of central AZ late this morning. Large scale ascent associated with the remnants of Rachel, approaching from the southwest, and continued destabilization are supporting this more robust, ongoing development along and east of the surface trough. Although only modest buoyancy is anticipated throughout the day, effective deep layer shear around 50 kt via a mid-level jet should support transient updraft organization. A bowing segment or two will be possible throughout this afternoon given the strong south-southwesterly low-level flow in place. In a...