SPC MD 2367

MD 2367 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK Mesoscale Discussion 2367 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Areas affected...Central New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132008Z - 132215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon. A few storms may produce gusty/damaging winds. A watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a differential heating/baroclinic zone extending from near Oswego to near Albany NY. Persistent clouds have limited temperatures north of this zone to the lower 60s and a stable boundary-layer. To the south, temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s, yielding SBCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Agitated cumulus are developing near the lake shore and are expected track down the boundary and grow into showers and thunderstorms during the next couple of hours. Winds aloft are quite strong with 50+ knots at 500mb and considerable veering profiles near the surface. While a few strong storms are expected, warm temperatures around 700mb and the onset of diurnal cooling should...