SPC MD 2366

MD 2366 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 2366 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of far northwestern Oklahoma into southern and eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 132007Z - 132200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will increase as storms continue to become more numerous through the afternoon. A risk for 75+ mph gusts and 2+ inch diameter hail will develop, and a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two to address the impending severe threat. DISCUSSION...A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the central and southern Plains, with anafrontal convection noted across portions of central KS. Though anafrontal, KDDC radar data shows an increasingly eastward progression of the ongoing storms, which may ultimately lead to storms outpacing the cold front. Once this occurs, these storms will encounter a well-mixed boundary layer, where surface observatio...