SPC MD 2368

MD 2368 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle to far southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132102Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will increase into the evening hours as storms increase in number and intensity. A few instances of 75+ mph gusts or 2+ inch hail are possible, especially for storms farther north into the TX Panhandle. A WW issuance is possible, especially farther north once details regarding locations of greater storm coverage become apparent. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation is taking place across western TX, both along and behind a dryline. Ahead of the dryline, upper 60s F surface dewpoints and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates are contributing to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, 35-50 kts of effective bulk shear are coinciding with this buoyancy, with the stronger shear noted over the TX Panhandle, in closer proximity to the stronger 500...