SPC MD 2375

MD 2375 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TO SOUTH PLAINS Mesoscale Discussion 2375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Areas affected...parts of the Permian Basin to South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141958Z - 142200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms will likely persist into the early evening, spreading northeastward and producing areas of severe gusts and hail. DISCUSSION...A north-south line of storms has erupted southwest of the Midland TX area, in a zone of strong heating and substantial low-level moisture. These storms will likely persist for several hours as they travel northeastward across the destabilizing air mass. Further convection is noted northward toward Lubbock, and also extending east from there along the old outflow boundary. Both cells and bowing structures are expected with deep-layer effective shear over 40 kt. Low-level shear is not particularly strong, but does increase with northward extent. The LBB VWP shows 0-1 SRH around 75 m2/s2. Initial vigorous updrafts may support a brief/weak tornado, with most of the severe mode being win...