SPC MD 2378

MD 2378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREATER NORTHWEST TEXAS REGION Mesoscale Discussion 2378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas affected...portions of the greater northwest Texas region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151913Z - 152145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in an increasingly unstable airmass this afternoon. Although vertical shear will support some thunderstorm organization, weak lapse rates and thunderstorms quickly moving into a cooler airmass to the north will limit the potential for an organized wind threat. A watch is currently not expected. DISCUSSION...A messy surface pattern is found across the southern Plains, with a congealed outflow/stationary front stretching across northwest Texas into southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. A slowly moving synoptic front is located to the west and north of the stationary front. In between widespread light to moderate precipitation is falling across far northwest Texas and much of western/central Oklahoma. Along and south of the stationary front, temperat...