SPC MD 2379

MD 2379 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA Mesoscale Discussion 2379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas affected...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...southwest Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151959Z - 152200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may develop later this afternoon from far southeast Missouri into southwest Indiana. Locally damaging gusts appear to be the main threat. DISCUSSION...A diffuse warm front continues to gradually mix northward across central IL into southwest IN, with dewpoints remaining in the 70s F. Just to the southwest, a low-level lapse rate plume extends from AR into southeast MO and toward the Lower OH Valley, with temperatures into the lower 90s F and dewpoints mixing down well into the 60s F. Within the warm advection zone, rain and few thunderstorms are now moving out of IL and toward central IN. This activity has locally cooled surface temperatures and may provide a relative focus for later development. Visible imagery does show substantial boundary layer CU from southeast...