SPC MD 2381

MD 2381 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF PA INTO SOUTHERN NY...NJ...DE...MD AND NORTHERN WV/VA Mesoscale Discussion 2381 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Areas affected...portions of PA into southern NY...NJ...DE...MD and northern WV/VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161656Z - 161830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds may accompany showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of hours across portions of central PA southwestward into northern WV and western MD. Severe potential may increase later this afternoon into early evening toward southern NY and the DelMarVa vicinity. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in intensity across western PA early this afternoon along/just ahead of a surface cold front. Downstream, stronger heating is occurring within a corridor of scattered to broken cloudiness across central PA into adjacent portions of WV/western MD. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s where this stronger heating has occurred, and weak destabilization is underway. While instability and lapse rates are expected to remain rather mild, strong deep-...