SPC MD 2383

MD 2383 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO Mesoscale Discussion 2383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192000Z - 192200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm cover is expected to increase later this afternoon with an isolated risk for hail or severe gusts. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2000 UTC, visible imagery showed cumulus towers and initial thunderstorms deepening near the international border and across the higher terrain of southeastern AZ. Surface temperatures have steadily warmed this afternoon ahead of a weak upper trough. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s with mid-level temperatures near -12 to -14 C are supporting around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Continue heating with steepening of lapse rate profiles should remove inhibition with additional thunderstorms expected to develop in and near the higher terrain this afternoon. While buoyancy will likely remain modest, effective shear of 30-40 kt could support some s...