SPC MD 2384

MD 2384 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA Mesoscale Discussion 2384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Areas affected...parts of central and northern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 210805Z - 211000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail may persist another hour or two, north of the Greater Phoenix area into the Mogollon Rim vicinity south of Flagstaff, with diminishing potential through 2-4 AM MST and into/across northern Arizona. DISCUSSION...There has been an increase in number of thunderstorms initiating over the past couple of hours, as a focused area of large-scale ascent begins to spread north of the lower deserts into the Colorado Plateau. At higher elevations across and north of the Mogollon Rim, the boundary-layer moisture increases remain modest, within a relatively cool environment. This is likely to continue to suppress destabilization, particularly as temperatures around 500 mb begin to warm through 10-12z. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear,...