SPC MD 2385

MD 2385 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ARIZONA Mesoscale Discussion 2385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0849 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Areas affected...West central and central Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211349Z - 211515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail/wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible with occasional supercells through the morning. There is some uncertainty in the timing of any ramp up in storm coverage, which is the primary uncertainty for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have weakened as the convection moved across the Mogollon Rim and into a slightly cooler/more stable environment atop the higher terrain. Additional/isolated thunderstorms are forming northeast through northwest of Phoenix within a low-midlevel moisture plume, potentially aided by embedded speed maxima moving north-northeastward. Though the coverage of additional storms through the morning is in question, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells will persist with sufficient buoyancy (per modified RAP forecast soundings) and hodograph length/curva...