SPC MD 2386

MD 2386 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA Mesoscale Discussion 2386 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Areas affected...Northern and central Arizona into far southeastern Nevada Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 211635Z - 211830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk for supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind gusts will continue increasing into this afternoon. A Tornado Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Within a broad zone of warm/moist advection extending across AZ, a couple of storms have intensified into supercells, though this intensification has been mostly associated with small-scale terrain enhancements thus far. Recent visible satellite and radar data now show the genesis zone for deep convection south of the Mogollon Rim, where the boundary layer is diurnally destabilizing. Current thinking is that this activity will continue tracking northward toward the aforementioned terrain features and related enhancement to low-level shear profiles. This, combined with a sheltered boundary l...