SPC MD 2387

MD 2387 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA Mesoscale Discussion 2387 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southern and central Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211835Z - 212100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase through the afternoon, especially between 20Z and 23Z. The primary concerns will be large hail and severe wind gusts. A watch may eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows deepening boundary-layer cumulus evolving across parts of southern AZ -- beneath a plume of mid/high-level clouds. Over the next few hours, continued differential heating and orographic circulations should promote scattered thunderstorm development in the 20Z-23Z time frame. The KEMX VWP is sampling an elongated hodograph (40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear) and modest low-level hodograph curvature (albeit weaker low-level shear compared to areas farther north). This, combined with the destabilizing PBL, will support discrete/semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Given the expectation ...