SPC MD 2392

MD 2392 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST Mesoscale Discussion 2392 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Areas affected...Central California Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220040Z - 220145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated threat for a tornadoe and severe wind gusts is expected to develop across parts of the central California Coast this evening. The threat will likely be too marginal for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...An upper-level low is currently located about 250 statute miles offshore from the central California Coast, with a 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet extending from the base of the system into southern California. With the approach of the system, strong large-scale ascent is currently spreading over much of southern and central California. In response, a south-to-north band of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms is ongoing to the southwest of San Luis Obispo, and is just offshore. This feature will gradually move toward the coast and will move inland later this evening. WSR-88D VWP near San Luis Obispo has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity aro...