SPC MD 2391

MD 2391 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST Mesoscale Discussion 2391 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Areas affected...far southern California Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220036Z - 220230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Convection approaching the coast may pose a brief threat of a weak tornado and damaging wind gust over the next few hours. A watch is unlikely given the marginal and isolated nature of the threat. DISCUSSION...Convection has deepened and strengthened along a convergence band off the far southern California coast and will move onshore in the next couple of hours. While the convection currently lacks lightning, there has been a history of rotation offshore. Despite the shallow and meager instability, there is sufficient deep-layer and low-level shear to support storm organization and rotation. As such, the potential for a weak tornado and a strong wind gust will exist as this band moves onshore. ..Jirak/Smith.. 10/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGX... LAT...LON 32571748 33011761 33411804 3369179...