SPC MD 2393

MD 2393 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 690... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA Mesoscale Discussion 2393 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Arizona Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690... Valid 220321Z - 220515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado will be possible across parts of central and eastern Arizona late this evening into the overnight. DISCUSSION...Recent RAP/water vapor analysis has a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet streak located over northwestern and north-central Arizona. Lift is likely maximized to the east of this feature across central and eastern Arizona, which is supporting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Over eastern Arizona, surface dewpoints are in the upper 50s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 750 to 1000 J/kg. As moisture advection continues overnight, instability is expected to be maintained. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Flagstaff shows a long straight hodograph with 55 to 65 knot of flow in the mid-levels. This wind profile will continue to support the potential for ...