SPC MD 2394

MD 2394 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA...FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH...FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA Mesoscale Discussion 2394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Areas affected...Far Southeast Nevada...Far Southwest Utah...Far Northwest Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220453Z - 220600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible early tonight from far northeast Nevada into far southwest Utah. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows an axis of maximized low-level moisture from western Arizona extending north-northwestward into far southeastern Nevada, along which dewpoints are in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. The RAP has a localized maximum of instability in far southeast Nevada with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms have developed near the instability max over the last hour, likely in response to upslope flow. These storms are being supported by large-scale ascent associated with an approaching upper-level system. The latest VAD wind profile northeast of Las Vegas has 50 ...