SPC MD 2395

MD 2395 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 690... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA Mesoscale Discussion 2395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Areas affected...parts of central Arizona Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690... Valid 220721Z - 220915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development remains possible overnight. Although the potential for severe weather may currently be at a relative minimum, it appears that this may increase again by 4-6 AM MST. A new severe weather watch may be needed, but it is not certain whether this will be before WW 690 expires at 09Z, or a bit later tonight. DISCUSSION...There has been little change in the large-scale environment through the evening into the overnight hours, downstream of a notable mid-level trough and embedded low slowly migrating inland of the southern California coast. Southerly low-level flow is maintaining a seasonably moist boundary-layer across the lower deserts into Mogollon Rim vicinity, which has been sufficient to contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg beneath modestly cool mid-level air. Beneath...