SPC MD 2398

MD 2398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEVADA...SOUTHWEST UTAH AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARIZONA Mesoscale Discussion 2398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Nevada...southwest Utah and extreme northwest Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221747Z - 221915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Occasional strong-severe gusts, isolated large hail and an isolated tornado will all be possible. However, the threat is expected to remain relatively sparse and on the lower margins for a broad area, so a watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...A midlevel trough over southern/central CA is beginning to eject east-northeastward toward the southern Great Basin, with downstream forcing for ascent likewise overspreading eastern NV, western UT and extreme northwest AZ. Surface heating in cloud breaks is contributing to destabilization and storm coverage is expected to increase in broken bands through the afternoon. Long, straight hodographs will favor a mix of splitting cells and line segments capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe gusts. The magni...