SPC MD 2401

MD 2401 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO Mesoscale Discussion 2401 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Areas affected...Western/central New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222016Z - 222115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail/wind threat may extend a couple of counties to the east and may warrant a narrow Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...Convection with embedded/organized structures continues to spread northeastward across western NM. Forcing for ascent and vertical shear weaken gradually with eastward extent, though the 18z ABQ sounding revealed an environment favorable for some continued hail/wind threat east of the current Tornado Watch. An eastward extension of the current Tornado Watch is in question given the marginal tornado threat this far east, so a new/narrow Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be proposed shortly. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 10/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 32310736 32060810 32540802 34880746 35980700 36390652 36390602 35880583 34490641 32310736 MOST PROB...