SPC MD 2400

MD 2400 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO Mesoscale Discussion 2400 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 222014Z - 222145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk is expected to spread northward, with the main concerns being severe wind gusts and large hail. A watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Clouds have gradually cleared from south to north into parts of southeastern UT and southwestern CO, yielding boundary-layer destabilization. Despite relatively weak buoyancy, strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel low/trough over CA and strengthening deep-layer wind fields (around 60 kt of 0-6 km shear per GJX VWP) should still support organized clusters and supercell structures developing/spreading into the area from the south. The primary concerns will be large hail and severe wind gusts, though a tornado cannot be entirely ruled out -- given modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature. A watch will likely be n...