ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – September 2026

In September the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5% in August. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also increased, to 3.1% from 3.0%. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead and median expectations for inflation five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5% respectively. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly, remaining higher than the level prior to the start of the conflict in the Middle East. Respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in the top quintile. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).

Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% in September from 1.0% in August. As in previous months expectations were, on average, higher in the bottom income quintile (1.5%) than in the top quintile (1.2%). Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.3% from 5.2%, while expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 3.7% from 3.6%.