SPC MD 2404

MD 2404 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 Areas affected...Much of New Mexico and Portions of Far West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231748Z - 231915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the terrain of New Mexico. Strong vertical shear will support thunderstorm organization, with the potential for very large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A seasonably moist airmass remains in place across much of the southern Rockies this afternoon, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50Fs across central and western New Mexico. Cloud cover has been less than in previous days within the moist plume, allowing for temperatures to warm quickly into the 60Fs north to 70Fs south. The result is a plume of increasing MUCAPE across the area, with values currently in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. The region is somewhat in betwee...