SPC MD 2405

MD 2405 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 696... FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO Mesoscale Discussion 2405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 Areas affected...much of northern New Mexico Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696... Valid 232232Z - 240100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered cells should continue to produce hail over 1.00" diameter through this evening. DISCUSSION...Two north-south zones of cells persist, forming over the higher terrain both west and east of the Rio Grande Valley. Backed winds aloft along with low-level southerlies are resulting in straight hodographs with northeastward motions averaging 215/22 kt. Boundary-layer dewpoints remain mixed into the 40s F with some low 50s into southern/eastern NM. MLCAPE is near 1000 J/kg, with seasonably cool temperatures aloft. Cellular storm mode should continue to favor hail as the primary risk, with hail at or above 1.00" likely. Some CAMs suggest aggregating outflow later this evening, which could potentially result in strong wind gusts. By that time, instability will have weakened, and severe gust potential would appear t...