SPC MD 2407

MD 2407 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Areas affected...Central and Southern New Mexico into far West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 242010Z - 242215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by late this afternoon into early evening as convective development occurs and enters into the Slight Risk area. Damaging straight-line winds and hail are the primary threats, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...As forcing for ascent moves out of northern Mexico and into New Mexico/Texas, convective development is expected to occur and move into the Slight Risk Area. The 18Z EPZ sounding shows modest instability with a strongly-sheared, straight-line hodograph that will support a mix of supercell thunderstorms and upscale-growing line segments. Southeasterly surface flow from south-central/southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas could support slower storm motions and a relatively greater potential for large hail and a tornad...