SPC MD 2409

MD 2409 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO Mesoscale Discussion 2409 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251854Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated/marginally severe hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Persistent cloudiness through much of the morning has hindered diurnal heating/destabilization, but recent clearing has occurred across parts of northern/central NM. As surface temperatures continue to warm into the 60s and large-scale ascent attendant to an ejecting mid/upper-level trough overspreads this region, convection is forecast to gradually increase in coverage as weak boundary-layer instability develops. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over much of NM this afternoon, and related 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will support updraft organization. However, generally weak instability (less than 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and modest mid-level lapse rates (especially aro...